The US calendar is light for the entire week with the Trade Balance (-36.7Billion) and the
weekly claims data (659K) being the highlight. In the Eurozone, Retails Sales for February
will be announced on Monday with expectations for a decline of 0.4% M/M. PPI will also be
released on Monday with the Y/Y falling to -1.5%, the lowest level since May 1999. German
Factory Orders for February will be release don Wednesday with the expectation for a -2.1%.
In January orders fell by 8.0%. The combination does not bode well for 1Q GDP. Australia wil
have an important week. The RBA will make their rate statement on Tuesday AM at 12:30
AM. The expectation is mixed with estimates ranging from a 50 basis point cut to no change.
The RBA surprised the market by not changing rates in March. Also out of Australia next week
will be the monthly employment statistics ( Weds at 9:30 PM NYT). Last mo. full time
employment fell by the most in 2 decades (-53.8K). This month the expectation is for another
decline of 10K in full time workers and by 25K in total employment (inc. 15K part time). The
Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.4% from 5.2% last month. Canada will also
release their unemployment statistics on Thursday at 7:00 AM. The expectation is for the
change in Employment to decline by 57.5K. The UnE Rt is forecast to rise to 8%. Next Fri is
Good Friday which will keep actiivity light on the day as Europe and Canada will be off for the day
April 4, 2009
Market View for April 6th to April 10th
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